Here Comes Linus!

It looks like the Northeast (and a few other areas) are in for yet another winter storm!

After Juno dumped crippling amounts of snow on the Northeast and New England last week, the 6z GFS is forecasting yet another winter storm. Decent amounts of precipitation from Illinois through the Northeast/New England states will fall Sunday through Monday due to the newest named winter storm, Linus. Most of Indiana and Ohio are looking at liquid equivalents of about half an inch from 6pm -12am Sunday into Monday. Using those values and a 10:1 snow-water ratio (how many inches of snow will fall from 1 inch of rain), we can expect 5-6 inches of snow to fall in these areas. (Just using the 6-hr precip image to the left, snowfall totals will be more as snow accumulates over the length of the storm). As the low progresses eastward, it will strengthen, turn north and move up the coast. Here is where is bombs out (yet again) and drops more snow on the Northeast and New England states.

The above images show the positioning of the storm Sunday night. The low is centered over Virginia and the 540 line (the red dashed line thats going through the L in low, commonly called the rain snow line) suggests that the areas south of Pennsylvania will most likely see a mix of rain and snow during this time. Referring the the 6-hour precip image, it is suggested that at this time, Central and Northeast PA, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut will see the heaviest snowfall and largest accumulations. Most of these areas can expect to see between 6-10" with some areas seeing up to 12-18". These areas would be the darkest blue areas on the map above. After discussing positioning of the storm with the StormTrackerWx lead meteorologist, we think that the 12-18" snowfall accumulations on the 72-hour snowfall forecast map could be shifted slightly south. This would mean that central Illinois, central Indiana and central Ohio could see greater snowfall totals than shown by this map. The agreement of both the NAM and the GFS with the positioning of the storm helped facilitated in making this decision.

72-hour snowfall totals due to winter storm Linus. This map shows more in depth expected snowfall amounts for the areas
that will be affected by the newest named winter storm. Photo courtesy of : The Weather Channel

Winter Storm Juno Forecasted to Impact the Northeast and New England Sunday through Tuesday.

The sun peaks out in Wilkes-Barre today, but this is the
calm before the storm, as Juno makes its way into the area tonight
and Monday. Photo courtesy of: Ashley Ellis.

As I sit here writing this post, it is a beautiful day here in Wilkes-Barre, PA! That won't last long though, as winter storm Juno moves toward the Northeast and New England. It is expected to dump a foot or more of snow in some areas and bring blizzard like conditions to coastal areas in the Northeast and New England, Monday and Tuesday. Things have changed some since I sat down yesterday morning to write about this "clipper" system. Here are the newest updates and forecasts!

Juno will affect much of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania Sunday into Sunday evening. Much of the forecast for these areas in the last post hasn't changed much. By Monday, though, things become interesting as the storm starts to move up the coast and begins to intensify. All of Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Massachusetts will be seeing snowfall from Juno by then. On Tuesday, eastern Pennsylvania, most of New York, and all of the New England states will be feeling the impacts of Juno as it strengths and drops significant amounts of snow in the Northeast and New England.

As winter storm Juno moves up the coast it will bomb out (bombing out is a drop in pressure of 24mb or more in 24 hours, this signifies a very intense storm) and dump possibly up to 2 feet of snow (possibly more locally) in some coastal areas.

Updated storm totals are as follows:

• Most of Pennsylvania will see between 5-8", with a few areas such as parts of central/western PA and Philadelphia receiving 8-12".
• New York has a wide spread of snowfall anywhere between 5-24". The snowfall totals increase as you move east. Therefore, central NY should see anywhere between 5-8", while New York City will receive around 8-12". The most southeast portions of NY contain the areas that will see 18-24".
• Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts will see the greatest impacts from Juno, as all 3 states will see snowfall totals of at least 18-24" with some areas, such as around Boston, receiving 24"+.
• Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine will also see a large spread in snowfall amounts. 
• Northern Vermont: 5-8"
• Central Vermont: 8-12"
• Southern Vermont: 18-24"
• Northern New Hampshire: 12-18"
• Southern New Hampshire: 18-24", with 24"+ in the most southeast tip of the state.
• Northern Maine: 8-12"
• Central Maine: 12-18"
• Southern Maine: 18-24"

Snowfall total map showing snowfall totals for the affected areas,
along with a summary of snowfall totals for large cities.
Photo courtesy of Weather.com

Along with dropping massive amounts of snow in some areas (snowfall rates of 2" per hour in some places), near blizzard-like conditions can be expected in the coastal areas as the storm quickly intensifies. Please don't venture out on the roads during the storm if it isn't absolutely necessary. This storm will cause very hazardous driving conditions in most areas affected, especially with the amount of snowfall forecasted and the gusty winds that are expected. 

Next Potential for Snow

After this last snow storm affected parts of the Northeast and New England, there is more potential for some extra snowfall in a few areas.

Low pressure system sitting over Illinois on Sunday can be
expected to bring some snow to surrounding areas.

Projected precip amounts ending Sunday night. 1 inch of liquid
is about equivalent to 10 inches of powder snow.

A low pressure system is currently developing in the Dakotas and will strengthen as it swoops southeast. The GFS suggests that Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, central Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, and parts of Pennsylvania can expect to see some more snow Sunday and Monday. This storm can be classified as a clipper and will move through the area fairly quickly.

NAM predicted snowfall amounts for the same time
period shown to the left by the GFS.

Snowfall amounts don't appear to be very significant at this point though Western Ohio, Eastern Indiana, Kentucky, and central Tennessee should see the most snowfall amounts with about 2-3 inches of snowfall predicted by the current GFS model, though locally higher amounts can be seen. The NAM seems to  be in close agreement with the GFS. Slight differences are seen in snowfall amounts and positioning of the precipitation. StormTrackerWx meteorologists will keep monitoring the development of this clipper system and will keep you updated as needed!

Winter Storm "Gorgon" - What to Expect

A disturbance in the jet stream will be what drives a weak clipper system, otherwise known as winter storm Gorgon, across the US Monday and Tuesday.

On Monday snow will be in the Rocky Mountain region, where snowfall totals in a few spot could exceed 2 feet. Windy conditions will reduce visibility and below zero wind chills could create very dangerous situations in some cases. As the storm progresses eastward it will lose some of it strength, reducing snowfall amounts and wind gusts.

By Monday night, the weakened clipper system will move into the Great Lakes regions and parts of the Ohio Valley, where snowfall totals will tapper off slightly. Snowfall totals in Illinois, Indiana, and Western/Central Ohio should be around 3-5 inches. By late Monday night the storm will reach West Virginia and Western Pennsylvania. In these regions due to the storm losing it's strength, the snowfall will be light with snowfall totals around 1-3 inches in most places.

Gorgon will move into the Northeast Tuesday, slightly affecting the morning commute for Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington D.C. where a dusting will be seen. As the day progresses most areas affected by the storm will see snowfall amounts of about 1-3 inches. North-central PA and South-central NY will see around an inch or less. By Tuesday night, Gorgon will move out to sea, but areas prone to Lake Effect Snow will see some additional snowfall after the clipper system moves off the coast.