Winter Storm Juno Forecasted to Impact the Northeast and New England Sunday through Tuesday.

The sun peaks out in Wilkes-Barre today, but this is the
calm before the storm, as Juno makes its way into the area tonight
and Monday. Photo courtesy of: Ashley Ellis.

As I sit here writing this post, it is a beautiful day here in Wilkes-Barre, PA! That won't last long though, as winter storm Juno moves toward the Northeast and New England. It is expected to dump a foot or more of snow in some areas and bring blizzard like conditions to coastal areas in the Northeast and New England, Monday and Tuesday. Things have changed some since I sat down yesterday morning to write about this "clipper" system. Here are the newest updates and forecasts!

Juno will affect much of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania Sunday into Sunday evening. Much of the forecast for these areas in the last post hasn't changed much. By Monday, though, things become interesting as the storm starts to move up the coast and begins to intensify. All of Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Massachusetts will be seeing snowfall from Juno by then. On Tuesday, eastern Pennsylvania, most of New York, and all of the New England states will be feeling the impacts of Juno as it strengths and drops significant amounts of snow in the Northeast and New England.

As winter storm Juno moves up the coast it will bomb out (bombing out is a drop in pressure of 24mb or more in 24 hours, this signifies a very intense storm) and dump possibly up to 2 feet of snow (possibly more locally) in some coastal areas.

Updated storm totals are as follows:

• Most of Pennsylvania will see between 5-8", with a few areas such as parts of central/western PA and Philadelphia receiving 8-12".
• New York has a wide spread of snowfall anywhere between 5-24". The snowfall totals increase as you move east. Therefore, central NY should see anywhere between 5-8", while New York City will receive around 8-12". The most southeast portions of NY contain the areas that will see 18-24".
• Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts will see the greatest impacts from Juno, as all 3 states will see snowfall totals of at least 18-24" with some areas, such as around Boston, receiving 24"+.
• Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine will also see a large spread in snowfall amounts. 
• Northern Vermont: 5-8"
• Central Vermont: 8-12"
• Southern Vermont: 18-24"
• Northern New Hampshire: 12-18"
• Southern New Hampshire: 18-24", with 24"+ in the most southeast tip of the state.
• Northern Maine: 8-12"
• Central Maine: 12-18"
• Southern Maine: 18-24"

Snowfall total map showing snowfall totals for the affected areas,
along with a summary of snowfall totals for large cities.
Photo courtesy of Weather.com

Along with dropping massive amounts of snow in some areas (snowfall rates of 2" per hour in some places), near blizzard-like conditions can be expected in the coastal areas as the storm quickly intensifies. Please don't venture out on the roads during the storm if it isn't absolutely necessary. This storm will cause very hazardous driving conditions in most areas affected, especially with the amount of snowfall forecasted and the gusty winds that are expected. 

Next Potential for Snow

After this last snow storm affected parts of the Northeast and New England, there is more potential for some extra snowfall in a few areas.

Low pressure system sitting over Illinois on Sunday can be
expected to bring some snow to surrounding areas.

Projected precip amounts ending Sunday night. 1 inch of liquid
is about equivalent to 10 inches of powder snow.

A low pressure system is currently developing in the Dakotas and will strengthen as it swoops southeast. The GFS suggests that Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, central Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, and parts of Pennsylvania can expect to see some more snow Sunday and Monday. This storm can be classified as a clipper and will move through the area fairly quickly.

NAM predicted snowfall amounts for the same time
period shown to the left by the GFS.

Snowfall amounts don't appear to be very significant at this point though Western Ohio, Eastern Indiana, Kentucky, and central Tennessee should see the most snowfall amounts with about 2-3 inches of snowfall predicted by the current GFS model, though locally higher amounts can be seen. The NAM seems to  be in close agreement with the GFS. Slight differences are seen in snowfall amounts and positioning of the precipitation. StormTrackerWx meteorologists will keep monitoring the development of this clipper system and will keep you updated as needed!

Winter Storm "Gorgon" - What to Expect

A disturbance in the jet stream will be what drives a weak clipper system, otherwise known as winter storm Gorgon, across the US Monday and Tuesday.

On Monday snow will be in the Rocky Mountain region, where snowfall totals in a few spot could exceed 2 feet. Windy conditions will reduce visibility and below zero wind chills could create very dangerous situations in some cases. As the storm progresses eastward it will lose some of it strength, reducing snowfall amounts and wind gusts.

By Monday night, the weakened clipper system will move into the Great Lakes regions and parts of the Ohio Valley, where snowfall totals will tapper off slightly. Snowfall totals in Illinois, Indiana, and Western/Central Ohio should be around 3-5 inches. By late Monday night the storm will reach West Virginia and Western Pennsylvania. In these regions due to the storm losing it's strength, the snowfall will be light with snowfall totals around 1-3 inches in most places.

Gorgon will move into the Northeast Tuesday, slightly affecting the morning commute for Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington D.C. where a dusting will be seen. As the day progresses most areas affected by the storm will see snowfall amounts of about 1-3 inches. North-central PA and South-central NY will see around an inch or less. By Tuesday night, Gorgon will move out to sea, but areas prone to Lake Effect Snow will see some additional snowfall after the clipper system moves off the coast.

Who Will Wake Up to a White Christmas This Year?

It's Christmas Eve and we are all wondering who will wake up to a white Christmas this year. It has been uncertain over the last few days what the weather patterns here in the US would bring to us for Christmas Day. Here in the northeast, we experienced a very soggy Christmas Eve. The rain lasted all day and was heavy at times, putting a slight damper on some last minute Christmas shopping plans. Despite all the rain, there were still a lot of shoppers out checking those final items off their Christmas shopping lists. Now that we are well into Christmas Eve and Christmas is only a few hours away a more accurate forecast can be made.

A Christmas Eve storm brought snow to the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies today, and it will bring a white Christmas to some. This newest winter storm has been named Eris and tomorrow it will bring snow to Utah, Wyoming, southeast Idaho and western Colorado. Residents in these mid-western states will have a white Christmas this year, but along with a white Christmas comes tricky travel conditions. If you are traveling on the following interstates on Christmas Day, please take your time and be safe:

Interstate 15: Butte, Montana into Utah

Interstate 25: Southern Montana into Wyoming

Interstate 70: Colorado high country into Utah

Interstate 80: Nebraska panhandle into Utah

Have you heard that Hawaii can get blizzards on Christmas Eve too? This Christmas Eve brought blizzard like conditions to Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. The last time a blizzard warning was issued for Hawaii was in 2007, making this only the second blizzard warning issued for Hawaii since 1986. Even though these conditions didn't affect populated areas of the Big Island, it is pretty interesting to hear that some unexpected areas can have a white Christmas too!

From our family here at StormTrackerWx to yours, Happy Holidays and have a happy and safe New Year!

Post Nuri: U.S. Braces for Arctic Invasion in Wake of Record-Breaking Storm

As of this morning Ex-Typhoon Nuri, located in the Bearing Sea, bombed-out to 924 mb. This makes it the strongest extratropical cyclone in the Pacific Ocean, breaking the previous record of 925mb that occurred between October 25-26 of 1977.

For those of you following this story, you hear a lot of Meteorologists using the term "bombing-out", but what does this term mean?  Simply put, "bombing-out" refers to a Low that drops 24mb or more in pressure over a 24 hour period.

It's not often we hear about how storms in the Pacific Ocean affect our weather 4,500 miles away.  However, a storm of this magnitude and strength will ultimately lead to a cold snap that will affect 42 or more states across the contiguous U.S. by week's end.

Extratropical storm Nuri, The lines are streamlines that represent
 how fast the winds around the storm are moving. The more
streamlines in any given area, the faster the wind.
Photo Courtesy of :Earth wind map

After battering Alaska with hurricane-force winds, 50-foot swells, and coastal erosion, Nuri will interfere with the jet stream (the level of high winds between 250mb and 300mb, or 9000m above mean sea level). The jet stream helps push air masses associated with High and Low pressure around the globe, which greatly affect everyday weather patterns.

Nuri is expected to cause a very large ridge of High pressure across the Eastern Pacific, parts of Central/ Eastern Canada, and the United States. As this ridge amplifies, a trough of Low pressure will deepen across the Central and Eastern U.S. This is what Meteorologists refer to as a teleconnection, or climate anomalies that are related across large distances. In this case, the trough associated with Nuri will bring arctic air from Canada into the U.S. by mid-week. 

As a result, heavy snow and strong winds will be felt in South Dakota, Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper-Peninsula, where Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.  Elsewhere, very cold temperatures will follow in the wake of a cold front, with highs struggling to warm above 32 degrees forecasted across parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Eastern Seaboard through the weekend

PSUDROPS Community Outreach Program Successful!

This past Saturday I volunteered my time to do some outreach in the State College community. This consisted of helping to educate the public on weather radar and instruments such, like the DOW (Doppler on Wheels) and the tornado pod. Instruments like this need to be talked about more. Without these we would not be able to see how severe storms develop, work, and how they move. They are extremely important to the Meteorology community. These are the instruments that gather weather data that help save lives!

The operator's Chair.

Dr. Richardson (Mesoscale Meteorology Professor)
in the Coordinator's Chair.

Myself and the Tornado Pod.

From 10am-3pm, I explained to members of the community the importance of such instruments in the Meteorological community. It was very exciting to see many parents encouraging their young children to learn more about the science behind weather. The day was very busy and we had 150-200 people come through, visit the DOW, and learn about the tornado pod. To see the excitement on the faces of the children who stopped by was truly inspiring.

Dr. Kumjian being interview by Jill (Meteo student)
 for a quick feature that she is working on for the Meteo dept.

I have one especially memorable moment from the event that I would like to share. I met this little boy who couldn't be more than 5 or 6 years old. His mother approached me and told me that he was afraid of thunderstorms and always looked at radar as storms were approaching to make sure that he was safe. This reminds me of my younger self; I was the exact same way. This is the exact way I became interested in the weather and then went on to pursue a Meterology degree at Penn State. To share this personal experience with this child was such a feel good experience. I was able to explain to him how thunderstorms worked and told him how interesting and cool they really were. I felt so satisfied having this experience and being able to relate on a personal level. Maybe one day in the child's future he will remember the conversation we had and he will go on to do great things in the Meteorology community!

All-in-all the day was very successful and I felt that the Meteorology department here at Penn State received a lot positive publicity. It was a lot of fun to be able to teach young and old about the cool things we do here in the department, and about how cool this science really is. I was interviewed quickly by a classmate on how I felt about the DOW visit and that was exciting as well! This has been a fantastic week so far!

Members of the community gathering around the tornado pod
learning about it uses.

Meteorology students (including myself) posing with the tornado pod.

First Deployment in the DOW

A quick update on the DOW visit! Today was my our day to deploy (Helen, Emily, Johan, and I) and we couldn't have better timing for our deployment. Our shift was from 5-7pm, we left around 430pm and made it to the site at 445pm. After the group before us finished up their scans, we took a few pictures with the DOW and jumped in to begin our adventure. Shortly after getting in the DOW, discussing our strategies and getting used to the controls, the front started to approach us.

When you first climb up the door to get into the DOW in can be very overwhelming. There are 2 main sets of computers, one is for the operator and the other is for the coordinator. Each person has their own set of duties while running radar sweeps. The operator is obviously the commander-in-chief. They are the person to run the scans. This includes switching pulses (which has to be done in a very specific order), choosing elevation angles to tell the radar to sweep over, changing the azimuth angles of the radar, controlling the speed at which the radar turns, controlling the highest and lowest elevation angles the radar will sweep at, and the list goes on and on. One can just imagine what this person's job would consist of. It is very overwhelming at times, especially when this is the first time you've done something like this. There are so many controls and buttons to play with! The coordinator can basically help with most of the above and are responsible for note-taking, which is super important so one can remember all the different things they did for their different scanning strategies. Things get a bit crazy inside the DOW, especially when you have a bunch of overzealous Meteorology students who are super excited about this project. For all of us this is the first time we've gotten hands on experience with radar, and for it to be the DOW, thats pretty big!

Me acting as the Operator of the DOW,
 running live radar sweeps.

The front moved through the area shortly after we started our shift. We started scanning only with PPIs, which are what you are used to seeing on a normal radar image. We did this because the front was still pretty far away, and there wasn't much to see in vertical cross-sections. As the storm moved closer we decided to add RHIs to our list of scans. After a little bit of editing and playing with the elevations angles and such, we finally were getting some interesting data. We saw Kelvin-Helmholtz instability/waves in the upper levels of the front. The bright band/ melting layer also made an appearance. This is the layer in the atmosphere in which the snow/ice begins melting and becomes coated in liquid water. At this layer, we see a jump in reflectivity, as water scatters the beam given off by the radar more than ice does.

Reflectivity and Velocity Image.

RHI scan showing vertical cross-section
of the front.

All in all we had such a fantastic experience on our first official DOW deployment and I was lucky to be paired with a group of enthusiastic people.  Dr. Kumjian stopped by to spend some time with us, and so did the new Meteorology department head, David Stensrud, and his wife. There is so much to take away from this experience and we here at Penn State are so lucky to have the opportunity to have hands on experience with the DOW for the next week. I am hoping to get out again sometime to scan maybe migrating birds, insects, or something else that can give us a cool signature. Even a wind farm would be fun, so we can see the velocity images and such. I want to leave you with a few more pictures from tonight of radar images and group photos! This photo above is with our deployment group, the Meteorology 434 (radar meteorology) professor and the DOW driver/operator, Traeger.

Picture of me standing in front of the DOW!!! Finally :)

                 

Example of the melting layer/bright band displayed in the vertical cross-section image of the storm.

The DOW 7.