Chase Day Outlook: Severe Storms Possible from Illinois to Kentucky

Today's chase day, and StormTrackerWx.com is once again tracking the threat for severe storms across the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Unlike previous days this week, ongoing convection ahead of a mid level trough will serve as focus for storm development later today.  The disorganized MCS across Northern IL/ IN is poised to drop south and east into Central Indiana, where afternoon CAPE values are forecast to approach or exceed 2,500 j/kg.

Much uncertainty still exists as to the exact strength of storms, due to cloud cover limiting the amount of daytime heating at the surface.  The bulk of daytime heating will likely occur along and south of Interstate 70, where steep lapse rates will aid in large scale ascent for storm intensification.

Current thinking is numerous mid level impulses will come together to produce a significant damaging wind event in advance of an approaching mid level trough.  The tornado threat will likely be limited to areas that see discrete cell development ahead of the main line of storms, within the reservoir of steep mid level lapse rates and higher surface CAPE values.

For now, StormTrackerWx Team Members will mobilize north of Muncie, Indiana just north of the 5% tornado risk, and hope to be streaming Live chase coverage later today.

Be sure to Like us on Facebook and Follow us on Twitter for future updates!

Severe Storms To Impact The Ohio Valley And Midwest

StormTrackerWx.com is tracking more severe weather across the Ohio Valley and Midwest this afternoon and evening.

The shortwave that aided in yesterday's convection over the high Plains will shift east into Iowa today.  This feature will serve as focus for severe development across Central Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, where substantial deep layer shear will be more than sufficient for supercells capable of producing large hail.  Given the amount of low and deep layer vertical shear present, a few tornadoes will also be possible.

Rapid development and intensification is forecast further downstream of the trough axis across the Ohio Valley.  Sufficient daytime heating will promote steepening mid level lapse rates, with the potential for a very unstable air mass to develop across the region this afternoon.  As the shortwave propagates eastward, discrete cells over Illinois will likely evolve into a bowing MCS (Mesoscale Convective Complex), with damaging straightline winds and torrential downpours possible.

Additional severe weather is forecast across this region tomorrow, with cooler temperatures expected by the weekend.

Severe Storms To Accompany Heat Through Mid Week

StormTrackerWx.com is monitoring consecutive chances for severe thunderstorms through mid week impacting the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions.

The ridge of high pressure contributing to excessive heat and humidity will continue to breakdown, as numerous mid level impulses eject lee of the Rockies.  The most prominent of these features will accompany a low level jet Tuesday-Wednesday.  This feature is forecast to veer to the north and east, with ongoing convection propagating eastward into Southern Ontario.

Meanwhile, strong diurnal heating will continue to destabilize the lower levels, with surface based CAPE values approaching or possibly exceeding 3,000 j/kg.  This will aid in further convection later in the day Wednesday, as a short-wave trough crests the Central U.S. ridge.



Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely accompany this feature.  Given modest dewpoints, steepening lapse rates, and a westerly flow aloft, any storm that does develop will be capable of producing locally heavy rain and damaging winds.  Large hail will also be possible.

Temperatures in the 80s and lower humidity values will follow with the passage of the surface cold front, Thursday-Friday.

Help Wanted: College Internships Available Starting This Fall

Attention all college juniors and seniors!

StormTrackerWx Team Members from Penn State University stand in front of
a severe warned supercell west of Gillette, Wyoming on June 12, 2013.  Photo

by Jacon DeFlitch.

StormTrackerWx, LLC - your source for breaking weather, streaming video, and customizable severe weather content, will be offering internships and job opportunities for independent contractors during the 2013-2014 academic year.

Internships will consist of 1-2 students per semester.  Each student will collaborate as a team to monitor breaking weather across the country, update our state-of-the art blog site, and post social media updates to both Facebook and Twitter.  They will also post forecast discussions for major metropolitan cities across the U.S.

In addition, students will interact with the Lead Meteorologist 2-4 times a month, via Skype.  At the end of the semester, each student will receive an academic evolution to submit to their department head for credit, via their university's guidelines.

Help Wanted!

StormTrackerWx, LLC is also looking for 1-2 recruiters for the 2014 storm chase tour season.  Each individual will work to recruit students to chase with us next spring.  As an independent contractor, recruiters will earn a referral bonus of $100 for each seat they fill, with the possibility of earning up to $1,000 per tour.

In addition, recruiters will receive 50% off the total chase tour price for any one tour they wish to participate in, as well as 25% off merchandise at the StormTrackerWx.com Shop.

Interested applicants should send their resume to Jason Berry/ Lead Meteorologist at jberry@stormtrackerwx.com.

#TrackTheStorm
#Live2Chase

June Storm Chase Tour Recap

After 7 days, 7 states, and 3,700 miles, the June Chase Tour has come to an end.

Here's a quick recap.

Day 1:

Chase members departed Indianapolis for the Great Plains.  Our destination was extreme western Nebraska.  The Storm Prediction Center had issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for Day 2 that included the Sioux Falls region of South Dakota.  Our mission was simply to get in to position for the following day.

After more than 500 miles, we pulled off Interstate 80 in Council Bluffs, Iowa and enjoyed a nice dinner, before heading to bed.

Day 2:

We awoke to find the best location for severe storms had shifted further west toward Rapid City.  This included a 5% risk for tornadoes (5% risk of a tornado occurring within 28 miles of a point).  It was in agreement that we would travel northwest from Council Bluffs to Valentine, Nebraska.

After another 5 hours in the van, we arrived in Valentine with time to spare.  Following a quick bite to eat, we checked the latest weather model data and decided to move north to South Dakota, in pursuit of weak convection near the remote Indian Reservation of Rosebud.  However, the atmosphere was strongly capped, preventing large scale ascent needed for storm development.



A tornado warned supercell forms to west of Alliance, Nebraska on June 11,

2013.  Photo by Jason F. Berry.

About 45 minutes later, we headed west on Highway 20 toward more promising storms in the Nebraska Panhandle.  Two hours later, we pulled off on Highway 87 just outside the town of Alliance, where a supercell was showing signs of lowering and strong rotation.

Not soon after, the cell we were tracking prompted a Tornado Warning and we were in excellent position!  Our team was treated to classic textbook storm structure, including a wall cloud, mammatus, and LOTS of lightning.

After the warning was allowed to expire, we decided to rest in Alliance for the night.

Day 3:

With the high pressure "death" ridge building further north towards the Canadian border, the best area for storm development had once again shifted to our north and west.

Following Highway 2 out of Alliance, we eventually hooked west and followed 20 into East Central Wyoming.  Needless to say, the higher terrain of the Plains is a desolate area for storms, due to lacking low level moisture (more on this later).  However, it is one of the more pristine areas to chase in.

After stopping for lunch in Buffalo, we decided to head east on Interstate 90 toward Gillette, where the terrain was a bit flatter and the environment looked ripe for storm development.  Once in Gillette, we managed to find a suitable place to pull off just outside of town.  Soon after, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for a strong cell tracking in our direction.

Back to the part about the high Plains being a bleak environment for robust supercells.  With weak winds aloft and lacking low level moisture, the cell quickly began to decay.  About 30 minutes after the warning was issued, rain cooled air had effectively choked off the storm's updraft.  After 45 minutes, the cell was dead.

What was once a promising severe storm had vanished in the wind, with little or no precipitation.  We were still treated to some of the best storm structure of the trip, however.

With daylight fading with the storms, we decided to call it quits in Gillette.

Day 4:

This was mainly a recreational day, as storm development was too far to our west, and we needed to get in to position for the following day.  We departed Gillette for South Dakota, destination Mount Rushmore National Park.  After stopping in the quaint town of Keystone for lunch and sightseeing, we partook in all the Park had to offer.

Mount Rushmore National Park, South Dakota.  Photo by Jason F. Berry.

Soon after, we headed south toward Custer State Park, where it's safe to say the buffalo roam free... Literally!  Traveling along the main drag that winds through the Park, we encountered many bison a long the way.  We also spotted many other park inhabitants, including prairie dogs and deer.

Custer State Park, South Dakota.  Photo by Jason F. Berry.

Our sightseeing was cut short by dwindling daylight and the need to head 250 miles east for the next day.  After a 3-4 hour drive, we finally arrived in the town of Chamberlain for the night.

Day 5:

Back to chasing, this time we were headed to Nebraska.

Out of all the days, this day showed the most promise for tornadic supercells.  Our journey led us out of Chamberlain on Interstate 90, before hooking south on Route 81 toward the town of Norfolk, within the heart of the 5% tornado risk.

We arrived in Norfolk early.  So, after stopping for lunch, we took up shop at a local McDonalds, where we continued to monitor weather model data.  Everything looked good for storm initiation, with surface based CAPE values over 3,500 j/kg, and effective bulk shear.  In fact, other veteran chasers were headed north to our location.

After about an hour, we decided to head north to Pierce, where Highway 81 intersected 20.  This gave us the option to go north, south, east, or west.  After waiting another hour or so, storms began to fire to our south, a long the surface cold front.  Soon after, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Mesoscale Discussion highlighting a heightened risk for tornadic supercells just to our east.  Our location provided quick access south on  Route 15 toward the town of Wayne.

Storms to our south were quickly evolving into an MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex).  This created a problem for two reasons: 1) We were too far north to intercept anything tornadic, which meant we would need to punch the core (storm chasing slang for driving through the strongest part of a storm), and 2) Storms were robbing inflow necessary for development to our north.

We pulled off Route 15 south of Wayne to wait for the storms.  Once they arrived, our van was swallowed whole by a "Mothership" that produced heavy rain, wind, and small hail.  After waiting in upwards of 15 minutes, we decided to press on through blinding wind driven rain.

By this time, a Tornado Warning had been issued for the city of West Point.  We were in position to intercept.  However, circulation looked rather weak and rain wrapped, and racking further east meant possibly driving in to a tornado.

Having effectively avoided the storm's mesocyclone, we continued through heavy rain, vivid lightning, and minor flash flooding.  We eventually arrived in the town of Fremont, where a very exhausted crew took refuge for the night.

Day 6:

Our final chase day.

We departed Fremont on Highway 30 south on Interstate 29 toward Cameron, Missouri.  Once again, the Storm Prediction Center had issued a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms within a broad area covering Central and Northern Missouri, as well as Central and Southern Iowa.  This included a 5% risk for tornadoes in extreme Northeast Missouri.

By the time we stopped in the town of Cameron however, the environment was less than suitable for storm development.  Low level moisture was more than abundant, but cloud cover was suppressing surface based CAPE needed for large scale ascent.  After stopping for lunch, we decided to continue east on Route 36 toward Kirksville, where CAPE values approaching 3,500 j/kg looked promising for severe storm development.  Having arrived in Macon, we waited patiently for storms to fire.

Within the hour, numerous discrete cells began popping-up on radar.  Each showed signs of intensifying, but once again a multi-cell cluster of embedded thunder was developing just to our south and east.  Instead of driving north to Kirksville, we decided to continue east on 36 toward the town of Hannibal.

Map illustrating our 3,700 mile round-trip chase from Indianapolis, Indiana.

Around 45 minutes later, we arrived in Hannibal, only to discover the storms we were tracking had rapidly evolved into another MCC, something we had hoped not to encounter on our final day of chasing.  After a lengthy discussion, the decision was made to head south on Highway 61 toward St. Louis.

We did encounter one severe cell, however.  Shortly before dinner, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for our location, a fitting tribute from Mother Nature for our final night together as a chase team.

#ChaseOn

Chase Tour Leads First Timers To Tornado Alley

On Monday, June 10th 10 StormTrackerWx Team Members will embark on what for many will be their first storm chase experience west of the Mississippi River.

The chase tour that has been in planning for over a year, will consist of 6 days and 7 nights chasing storms in the heart of Tornado Alley.  8 out of 10 tour attendees are entering their third year as meteorology students at the Pennsylvania State University.  As part of the experience, each student has been assigned a position, which will allow them to work as a team.

Meet the June chase tour attendees.

Nichole Marsh - Lead Navigator

At an early age, Nichole was terrified of thunderstorms and loud noises.  When the skies darkened, she would run to a safe place, which for her was under her dining room table, where she would tremble and cover her ears.

Eventually, it was discovered that her eardrums did not tighten as they were supposed to, causing immense pain.  Eventually, with the help of her mom this condition was corrected, and Nichole went on to study more about the very thing that terrified her the most, thunderstorms.

Nichole eventually grew fascinated with thunderstorms.  She pursued her interest through grade school, taking home videos and studying more about the weather in her spare time.  This fascination eventually grew and by her junior year of high school, she was selected to attend Penn State's Annual Weather Camp.

By reaching out to area meteorologists, Nichole began to focus on the math and science coursework needed to prepare her for a college degree in atmospheric sciences.  After two successful years at Penn State Behrend, she is now ready to begin her third year as a meteorology student at the Pennsylvania State University in State College.

When she is not chasing storms, Nichole enjoys spending time with family and friends.  She is also an avid snowmobiler, fitting for the snowy winters of Northwest Pennsylvania.

Lexie Herdt - Backup Navigator

A native of New Jersey, Lexie is thrilled to be going on her first storm chase.  She grew up participating in sports, and is a huge NASCAR fan.  She also participated in various community service clubs.

Lexie is currently a junior at the Pennsylvania State University, where she is pursuing a degree in Environmental Meteorology.  Her main focus of interest is to understand the impacts of air and water on natural and human-altered ecosystems.  She continues to be involved in both meteorological and non-meteorological clubs at Penn State, including PSUBAMS and EMS THON.  Recently, Lexie and her chase colleagues partnered with the university to start a chase club.

By taking part in the chase tour, Lexie hopes to gain hands-on knowledge, which will benefit her future career as a Meteorologist.

Matthew Brothers - Backup Navigator

Growing up in Maryland, Matt became interested in weather by watching countless summer thunderstorms, and television coverage of Hurricane Charlie.

Matt is a junior at the Pennsylvania State University, where he is pursuing a degree in the university's Weather Risk Management option.  He is also minoring in GIS (Geographic Information Science), Energy Business, and Finance.

When not chasing storms, Matt is involved with the Campus Weather Service and the Weather Risk Management Club.  He is also a member of Chi Epsilon Pi.

Brian Adams - Weather Radio Correspondent

Like so many others, Brian inherited a passion for the weather at a young age.  He remembers watching storms, while sitting on his porch in Reading.

Brian is entering his junior year in meteorology at the Pennsylvania State University, where he is pursuing a degree in Weather Risk Management, with a minor in Energy, Business, and Finance.  Upon graduation, he hopes to one day to turn his obsession with severe weather into a career as a Weather Risk Management Meteorologist.

Aside from his studies, Brian is very involved with the Penn State Dance Marathon, as well as the Campus Weather Service.  In his spare time, Brian also volunteers at his local animal shelter.

Meghan Linsted - Blog Manager

Since the age of 5, Meghan has pursued weather as a hobby.  While recovering from a traumatic brain injury, the first conversational phrase she spoke was, "It was raining."

Meghan joins us from Northwest Pennsylvania, where she has a degree in Human Services from Clarion University.  She currently works in Venango County, where she assists adults with disabilities by taking them shopping and to movies.  When she is not working, Meghan is an avid runner and partakes in many races in and around her area.

She was recently interviewed by JET-TV on her first storm chase.  See more of Meghan's interview Here.

John Paul Nicola - Social Media Manager

JP is entering his junior year as a meteorology student at the Pennsylvania State University, where he is pursuing a degree in Weather Risk Management.

JP became hooked on weather during the summer of 2005 following his 6th grade year, when Hurricane Katrina made landfall along the New Orleans' coast.  A great deal of his summer was spent in front of the television, watching the Weather Channel's coverage of that record breaking hurricane season.  Following Katrina's aftermath, JP knew he wanted to pursue meteorology as a career.

Fun Fact: JP was born on the exact day Hurricane Andrew made landfall.  When he is not engaged in tropical weather, he serves as Treasurer for the Weather Risk Management Club at Penn State.

Jacob DeFlitch - Chief Photographer

Entering his junior year as a meteorology student at the Pennsylvania State University, Jake has been intrigued with weather from a young age.

Jake is one of the founding officers of the first ever PSU Storm Chase Team.  As Vice President, he hopes to increase awareness and knowledge of severe weather.  Aside from the storm chase team, Jake holds Community Outreach Chair for PSUBAMS (Penn State University Branch of American Meteorological Society).  He is also Director of Activities for EMS Student Council, and an acting member of Earth and Mineral Sciences THON.

It is through these positions that Jake hopes to help build the College of EMS and give back to the college that has already given him so much.

Ben Reppert - Master Photographer

From blockbuster snowstorms to summer thunderstorms, Ben is a fanatic of all things weather.

Like many of his chase tour colleagues, Ben is entering his junior year at the Pennsylvania State University, where he has become well-entrenched in the university's student-run weather organization.  He looks forward to starting his career as a professional meteorologist, and translating his hard earned knowledge into accurate and important life saving information.

Ben says chasing storms is a fantastic opportunity to live and learn on the forefront of his number one hobby.

Rob Englund - Master Photographer

A native of Illinois, Rob is no stranger to severe weather.  Growing up in the Midwest has allowed him to turn his once fear of tornadoes into a passion.

Rob is currently a junior at the Pennsylvania State University, where his focus is on the Weather Risk Management option.  He also has plans on pursuing a minor in GIS.  Following the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, Rob realized what an experience it would be to chase storms like the professionals he grew up watching on TV.  Now, his dream has become a reality.

When not chasing storms, Rob is an avid Cubs fan, who enjoys playing the guitar and hanging out with friends.

#ChaseOn

Chase Synopsis: June 10th - 16th

Mid level ridging across the Rockies should dig east into the Central Plains by mid week. This will shift the jet stream further north, where 500mb westerly flow will be favorable for at least isolated severe tstms across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Several mid level vort max's will also be embedded within the westerly flow aloft, which will aid in MCS development around the periphery of the ridge.

 

Further south across the Central and Southern Plains, large scale subsidence will inhibit the development of widespread severe tstms, with highs forecast in the mid 90s. It's plausible that we could see some development here closer to the weekend, as cyclogenesis produces a new surface Low lee of the Rockies.

For now however, the majority of our time will be spent in Nebraska and the Dakotas.

JB