Chase Day Outlook: Severe Storms Possible from Illinois to Kentucky

Today's chase day, and StormTrackerWx.com is once again tracking the threat for severe storms across the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Unlike previous days this week, ongoing convection ahead of a mid level trough will serve as focus for storm development later today.  The disorganized MCS across Northern IL/ IN is poised to drop south and east into Central Indiana, where afternoon CAPE values are forecast to approach or exceed 2,500 j/kg.

Much uncertainty still exists as to the exact strength of storms, due to cloud cover limiting the amount of daytime heating at the surface.  The bulk of daytime heating will likely occur along and south of Interstate 70, where steep lapse rates will aid in large scale ascent for storm intensification.

Current thinking is numerous mid level impulses will come together to produce a significant damaging wind event in advance of an approaching mid level trough.  The tornado threat will likely be limited to areas that see discrete cell development ahead of the main line of storms, within the reservoir of steep mid level lapse rates and higher surface CAPE values.

For now, StormTrackerWx Team Members will mobilize north of Muncie, Indiana just north of the 5% tornado risk, and hope to be streaming Live chase coverage later today.

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