Chase Synopsis: June 10th - 16th

Mid level ridging across the Rockies should dig east into the Central Plains by mid week. This will shift the jet stream further north, where 500mb westerly flow will be favorable for at least isolated severe tstms across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Several mid level vort max's will also be embedded within the westerly flow aloft, which will aid in MCS development around the periphery of the ridge.

 

Further south across the Central and Southern Plains, large scale subsidence will inhibit the development of widespread severe tstms, with highs forecast in the mid 90s. It's plausible that we could see some development here closer to the weekend, as cyclogenesis produces a new surface Low lee of the Rockies.

For now however, the majority of our time will be spent in Nebraska and the Dakotas.

JB