Moderate Risk for Severe Storms Today

An active weather day is in store for most of Plains states today.  Parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa are in a Moderate Risk area for severe thunderstorms. Focusing on the moderate risk area, low-level moisture is continuing to spread northward into the central plains on the backside of the retreating surface ridge. A south/southwesterly low-level jet stream will persist across the southern and central plains allowing for moisture to continue northwestward into Nebraska and western Iowa. Surface dew points in the upper 60s are likely and when coupled with strong surface heating should support the development of some very strong instability in the atmosphere over these areas today and into this evening. CAPE values are expected to be near 3000 J/Kg over central/eastern Kansas and into much of southern and eastern Nebraska by later today.

Warm sector thunderstorm development should be delayed until late in the day due to subsidence in wake of the lead impulse and an environmental mixed layer cap. The onset of height falls and with the main upper trough and uplift near the surface low that will position itself over western Kansas by this evening will help support strong storm development later on in the day over central/eastern Nebraska and possibly northwestern Kansas. Expect to see damaging winds, very large hail, and isolated tornadoes across much of these areas today and this evening.