Storm Outlook 6/11/14

Today's weather pattern brings with it two separate slight risk areas to discuss. The first is a slight risk area will bring severe thunderstorms to parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states, while the second slight risk area will likely bring severe storms over portions of the plains states.

In the Upper Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic regions, thunderstorm development is not expected to be particularly focused today. An upper level low that is over the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee valley regions is forecasted to make it's way eastward today. This will result in weak mid-level pressure falls and large scale lift over the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. Initial storm development will most likely occur over the mountains of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and spread northeastward. This will bring the storms into an area of sufficient vertical shear promoting the development of supercell storms. The main threats associated with these storms will be damaging winds and hail, but considering that the conditions will be right for some possible supercell development, the threat of a tornado or two developing should not be ruled out.

Kansas and Oklahoma should see some storm development today as well. Strong afternoon instability over central/western Kansas is expected to result due to cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to start occurring by 12z in these areas. Minnesota will also see some rotating storms capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. This is owed mostly to a cold front that is making its way into central Minnesota. Southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the low creating a favorable shear environment for these storms to form.