Quiet Day Ahead for Much of the US; Severe Storms Still Possible in Slight Risk Area

Since much of yesterday's active weather has quieted down and there doesn't seems to be much going on in terms of active weather today, in exception to the slight risk area and the New England states, we're going to keep this post short and sweet.

The focus area for today is the projected slight risk that runs from the North Central Gulf Coast up through the Coastal Carolinas. In the slight risk area, expect a few strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. There is a small chance that the South Carolina Coast could see an isolated tornado with some of these storms, but the chance is quite small.

The New England States could see some strong storms today as well. A few cloud breaks during the day will allow for some daytime heating helping to possibly bump up CAPE values in this area to 750-1500 J/KG, pair this with somewhat favorable vertical shear and organized severe storm development is possible, but marginal. Again there is a slight chance to see a few isolated tornadoes out of these storms, but the chance is quite slim, 2% according to the SPC outlook for today.

It seems that besides for a few isolated severe storms, most of the US will be quiet today, especially in comparison to yesterday's severe weather events. But as always if you live in the above mentioned areas, keep your eye to the sky as it is possible to see some active weather in your area.

5 Tornado Warned Cells in Tennessee and South Carolina

If you live in this area please keep a close eye on the weather! 

Moderate Risk Lowered to Slight; Slight Risk for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic Region, and Southern New England States

Yet another active weather day lies ahead for some parts of the country. Today, the focus is on much of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic states, and Southern New England.

Due to widespread clouds and precipitation in the Eastern Kentucky/ Western West Virginia area, the moderate risk for this area was removed. With this being said, there is still enhanced probabilities of tornadoes development, hail, and strong winds. 

A short summary is all that should be needed for today's outlook since the moderate risk area was lowered to a slight risk area. Severe thunderstorms are expected to move through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Coast region today and into the evening. The most significant severe weather threat will be across Eastern Kentucky, Southern Ohio, Southwestern West Virginia, and Southwestern Virginia, where they moderated risk area was lowered to slight risk. An isolated strong tornado is possible in these areas along with the usual damaging winds and large hail that accompanies severe storms. 

Illinois and Indiana in Moderate Risk Area

Today could be a big day weather-wise for parts of Indiana and Illinois. As of yesterday that area was still in a slight risk, but today it was bumped up to a moderate. Storms are expected to develop late afternoon/evening in this area. This is will happen before the mesoscale convective vortex that is in Northern Kansas this morning accelerates Eastward in response to the flow aloft strengthening. The convection associated with this will be in an environment that is favorable for supercells that can produce very large hail and damaging winds. Since there is sufficient low-level moisture and storm relative helicity, a couple tornadoes are to be expected to form within these supercells, as well. One or more bowing segments are expected to form across IL/IN tonight bringing some damaging winds with it. The storms will then move eastward through early Sunday toward Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky, with the risk of overnight damaging winds.

The slight risk area that surrounds the moderated risk, extends from Eastern Nebraska and into the Ohio/Kentucky area. Moisture, steep lapse rates, and daytime heating will allow for strong buoyancy and cape values of 3000-4000 J/KG, along with shear of 45-55 kts. Given strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear, it seems that any storms that form today in this area will become supercells with the risk for isolated areas of very large hail and damaging winds into the evening hours.

Stay tuned for updates as the day goes on!

Storm Outlook for 7/23/14

Most of the country has the chance to see some thunderstorm activity today (all areas in green and yellow shaded areas), but the main focus areas are Eastern Washington and Eastward into the Northern High Plains, the ARKLATEX region, and parts of the Northeast/New England states.

Keeping this short and sweet, let's just jump to a quick summary of what is expected to happen today in these mentioned areas. Severe storm development is likely in parts of Washington and Eastward into the northern Great Plains states this afternoon and this evening due to strengthening winds aloft and steep lapse rates. These storms will have the potential to produce large hail and isolated tornadoes mainly after dark.

In the ARKLATEX region dew-points in the mid-70s and strong heating will lead to extreme instability and high shear values in this region. As the day progresses into the afternoon/evening hours a bowing structure may form in this area bringing along with it, the usual risk for damaging winds. Before weakening after dark, the storms could potentially make their way into Texas.

Finally, we get to the New England/Northeast states which has already been seeing some pretty active weather during the last week/week-and-a-half. Cape values of 1500-2000 J/KG are possible due to strong heating and ample low-level moisture ahead of a cold front that is currently extending Eastern Quebec down into Lake Erie. Since winds aloft will not be particularly strong and lapse rates aren't exceptionally steep, it is unclear how many storms will fire and become severe, despite convection coverage in this area being pretty high.

Less Stormy Days Ahead for the Northeast, Texas in Slight Risk Area for Today

It looks like the severe/stormy weather that has been so persistent in the area of the Northeastern states over the last week or so has come to an end. This area is no longer in a risk category as the shortwave trough that is over the Northeastern States loses amplitude, and ejects northward into the New England states. As this trough loses it's amplitude heights are rising causing higher pressure to build into the area.

Along with high pressure, as most of us know, comes nicer weather, due to subsidence (sinking motion in the atmosphere). This sinking motion isn't friendly for developing storms because for those we need rising, vertical motion. Areas of high pressure lack that, therefore that's why we generally see very nice weather in these high pressure areas. Meaning that the Northeastern states should see some nicer weather after all those severe storms and tornado warned cells moved through the area all last week. The next day for potential storms in this area seems to be Sunday.

Here are a few radar images of some of the storms I have been seeing my area over the last week.

 Here are a few pictures of a shelf cloud from one of those storms. This cloud was actually associated with the last radar image. I was in meteorological bliss when snapping these photos. :)

Shelf cloud as it moved toward us.

Progression of the shelf cloud in 5 minutes time.

Let's move on to where the interesting weather might be positioned for today. Taking a peek at the SPC day 1 outlooks, it seems that central Texas is in the risk area for today. Despite being in the slight risk area, it looks like the severity of the storms won't be incredibly strong. Central Texas should see widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms in clusters, that will be possible through the evening hours. Strong wind gusts and large hail are the main threats with these storms, as the tornado risk is to conditional and depends on storm scales processes, making it difficult to predict.

Short and sweet, but to right to the point folks. There isn't much more to report on. It looks like it's going to be a pretty quiet day, with the exception of the slight risk area in Texas and maybe a few other pop up storms in the green areas on the outlook map above.

Mid-Atlantic and New England States in the Target for Potential Severe Storm Development Today

The focus for severe weather today looks to extend from the Central Appalachians, through the Northeast, and up through the New England states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-day through the afternoon hours in this area due to an area of weak boundary-layer convergence.

Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, putting a damper on any extreme instability in the atmosphere this afternoon, but some very rich low-level moisture combined with daytime surface heating shall allow for mid-level CAPE values to reach 1000-1500 J/KG over higher terrain and values of 2000-2500 J/KG along the coastal plain regions.

The storm threat will lessen this evening as night-time surface cooling occurs. Damaging winds and the possibility of hail will be the main threats with these developing storms.

The 2014 Hurricane Season is Underway!

For those of you who wait so anxiously for hurricane season to arrive, well it's here! Folks, we have the FIRST named tropical storm of the 2014 season. His name? Arthur. By the way, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1st and ends November 30th.



Current Forecast:

Arthur is sitting right of the coast of Florida currently and is moving northwest at 5 mph. It should continue to move in that general direction overnight. The center of the storm is expected to stay east of the east-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. Even so, Florida will see some heavy rain today and tomorrow with an expected rainfall accumulations of 1-3 inches, with as much as 5 inches in some areas and the Bahamas seeing as much as 6 inches! A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida coast as of today. Arthur is nearly stationary right now, as he sits off of the Florida coast.

Future Forecast:

Anticipated Storm Track for Tropical Storm Arthur.

The hurricane center said today, that the storm could reach hurricane strength in as little as 72 hours. It should veer more north over the next 2-3 days as a trough of low pressure moves in to the area and helps guide the tropical storm in that direction. The official forecast has Arthur moving north along the east coast and possibly brushing North Carolina. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty about the path that Arthur will take, meaning that people living along the east coast in the Carolinas and surrounding areas, should keep a close eye on forecasts so that they can be prepared as the storm approaches. With low wind shear in the area and sea-surface temperatures in the 80-degree range, conditions seem favorable to allow Arthur to strengthen over the next few days.


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