Today could be a big day weather-wise for parts of Indiana and Illinois. As of yesterday that area was still in a slight risk, but today it was bumped up to a moderate. Storms are expected to develop late afternoon/evening in this area. This is will happen before the mesoscale convective vortex that is in Northern Kansas this morning accelerates Eastward in response to the flow aloft strengthening. The convection associated with this will be in an environment that is favorable for supercells that can produce very large hail and damaging winds. Since there is sufficient low-level moisture and storm relative helicity, a couple tornadoes are to be expected to form within these supercells, as well. One or more bowing segments are expected to form across IL/IN tonight bringing some damaging winds with it. The storms will then move eastward through early Sunday toward Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky, with the risk of overnight damaging winds.The slight risk area that surrounds the moderated risk, extends from Eastern Nebraska and into the Ohio/Kentucky area. Moisture, steep lapse rates, and daytime heating will allow for strong buoyancy and cape values of 3000-4000 J/KG, along with shear of 45-55 kts. Given strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear, it seems that any storms that form today in this area will become supercells with the risk for isolated areas of very large hail and damaging winds into the evening hours.
Stay tuned for updates as the day goes on!
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