Storm Outlook for 7/23/14

Most of the country has the chance to see some thunderstorm activity today (all areas in green and yellow shaded areas), but the main focus areas are Eastern Washington and Eastward into the Northern High Plains, the ARKLATEX region, and parts of the Northeast/New England states.

Keeping this short and sweet, let's just jump to a quick summary of what is expected to happen today in these mentioned areas. Severe storm development is likely in parts of Washington and Eastward into the northern Great Plains states this afternoon and this evening due to strengthening winds aloft and steep lapse rates. These storms will have the potential to produce large hail and isolated tornadoes mainly after dark.

In the ARKLATEX region dew-points in the mid-70s and strong heating will lead to extreme instability and high shear values in this region. As the day progresses into the afternoon/evening hours a bowing structure may form in this area bringing along with it, the usual risk for damaging winds. Before weakening after dark, the storms could potentially make their way into Texas.

Finally, we get to the New England/Northeast states which has already been seeing some pretty active weather during the last week/week-and-a-half. Cape values of 1500-2000 J/KG are possible due to strong heating and ample low-level moisture ahead of a cold front that is currently extending Eastern Quebec down into Lake Erie. Since winds aloft will not be particularly strong and lapse rates aren't exceptionally steep, it is unclear how many storms will fire and become severe, despite convection coverage in this area being pretty high.