Today's slight risk area can be found in parts Southern Minnesota, Southwest Wisconsin, and much of Iowa. It's been a few days since there has been a slight risk area and the days where there have been, these area have been very small and isolated. Today's projected risk area is once again very small and isolated, not covering a large area, which is what we hope for being that some of these storms do a lot of damage to property and can harm people. So having a small risk area/ nothing to report on is good in a Meteorologists eyes.Let's talk about the risk that could come along with today's storms in our projected area. There is a disturbance that will be moving across Minnesota today, that will help provide the necessary ingredients for storms to fire-up today. Along with this disturbance there will be a belt of enhanced wind midlevel flow (40-50 kts) in the area around the time of maximum diurnal destabilization. Weak to modest large scale ascent acting on a fairly moist and increasingly unstable air mass will supply cape values of 1500-2000 J/KG. This will in return contribute to severe storm development.
The other feature in this area that is going to help contribute to today's severe weather in the slight risk area is a broad area of surface low pressure that has situated itself over Central Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is an area of convergent prefrontal wind shifts, where storms should develop linearly extending southward from the lows center, in one or more bands across this boundary. An area of steep mid-level lapse rates will reside across the moist axis of this low (Western Iowa and into Southern Minnesota) where strong mid-level flow around 50 kts will supply more than enough shear for storm development and persistence. The evening hours is when there should be some noticeable severe storm development. Keep an eye out for bowing segments with wind damage potential and a few supercells capable of producing large hail the size of golf balls.
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