Slight Risk for Central Plains, Mid-Atlantic Region

Severe weather is expected in parts of the Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley and parts of the Northeast today as we progress into the late afternoon and evening hours.


Afternoon storms in the Central Plains should be minimal, but not ruled out, with the main threat for storms starting along a cold front later in the day. Dew points reaching the mid-upper 60s by late afternoon, deep vertical shear, steep lapse rates, high cape values, westerly flow aloft, and a moist southerly flow bringing in tropical moisture from the gulf, creates the perfect environment for severe storm development. Isolated supercells should begin the storm development along the cold front that will be making its way through the area later today. Later in the evening storms should start to grow and develop into bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Expect to see a few isolated tornados and some very heavy rain with these storms as well.


In the Mid-Atlantic region, strong heating is occuring from Northern Virginia to the New York city area. High precipitable water values and 30-40 knot westerly mid-level winds will help contribute to some storm development this afternoon and early evening. A few of these storms can become severe. Formation of supercell and bowing structures are possible. If you live in these areas keep an eye out for damaging winds.