It seems a new slight risk area has been added to today's convective outlook. Southern Virginia and Eastern North Carolina have gained the attention of the SPC for today.A well defined short-wave trough is moving eastward across the Appalachians. Looking downstream of this trough, there is a fairly moist environment with dew points in the 70s. Cloud breaks in the area will promote destabilization in the atmosphere as areas of strong diabatic heating will occur. This will help CAPE values reach 2000-2500 J/KG in the areas of strongest heating.
The large scale ascent in this area associated with this trough should result in widespread storm development this afternoon. A unidirectional westerly flow of 25-35 knts will help provided sufficient shear to support organized storm development. Steeping low-level lapse rates suggest potential for some stronger storms to develop and produce strong/damaging winds from mid-afternoon through evening hours in this area.
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