Mid-Atlantic and New England States in the Target for Potential Severe Storm Development Today

The focus for severe weather today looks to extend from the Central Appalachians, through the Northeast, and up through the New England states. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from mid-day through the afternoon hours in this area due to an area of weak boundary-layer convergence.

Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, putting a damper on any extreme instability in the atmosphere this afternoon, but some very rich low-level moisture combined with daytime surface heating shall allow for mid-level CAPE values to reach 1000-1500 J/KG over higher terrain and values of 2000-2500 J/KG along the coastal plain regions.

The storm threat will lessen this evening as night-time surface cooling occurs. Damaging winds and the possibility of hail will be the main threats with these developing storms.

The 2014 Hurricane Season is Underway!

For those of you who wait so anxiously for hurricane season to arrive, well it's here! Folks, we have the FIRST named tropical storm of the 2014 season. His name? Arthur. By the way, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins June 1st and ends November 30th.



Current Forecast:

Arthur is sitting right of the coast of Florida currently and is moving northwest at 5 mph. It should continue to move in that general direction overnight. The center of the storm is expected to stay east of the east-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. Even so, Florida will see some heavy rain today and tomorrow with an expected rainfall accumulations of 1-3 inches, with as much as 5 inches in some areas and the Bahamas seeing as much as 6 inches! A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida coast as of today. Arthur is nearly stationary right now, as he sits off of the Florida coast.

Future Forecast:

Anticipated Storm Track for Tropical Storm Arthur.

The hurricane center said today, that the storm could reach hurricane strength in as little as 72 hours. It should veer more north over the next 2-3 days as a trough of low pressure moves in to the area and helps guide the tropical storm in that direction. The official forecast has Arthur moving north along the east coast and possibly brushing North Carolina. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty about the path that Arthur will take, meaning that people living along the east coast in the Carolinas and surrounding areas, should keep a close eye on forecasts so that they can be prepared as the storm approaches. With low wind shear in the area and sea-surface temperatures in the 80-degree range, conditions seem favorable to allow Arthur to strengthen over the next few days.


Stay posted for more updates and like us on facebook, follow us on twitter!

Tornado affects Indianapolis, Indiana Area

This afternoon brings along with it some very active weather for the Indianapolis, IN area. Not too long ago a confirmed tornado was on the ground in Speedway, IN heading northeast toward Indianapolis. The tornado warning associated with this cell expires in just a few minutes. The radar seems to back this up, with the couplet on this cell weakening significantly in the last few minutes. Here are few radar shots (taken just minutes apart) from earlier when the storm still had a tornado on the ground.

Even after the warnings expire, some heavy rain and possibly a few more strong storms will affect the Indianapolis area, as a line of storms is currently moving northeast. If you live in the area, please keep an eye to the sky and stay safe!

Strong Storms Affecting Central Indiana

A surface boundary in Central Indiana is causing some strong storms and downpours this afternoon. A tornado warning was in effect until 4:15 pm for Henry county. Though the rotation in the storm died out, the line still remains strong as severe thunderstorm warnings are still in effect for Fayette, Union, and Wayne counties. Flash flooding is still possible as some heavy rain is being dumped over the area.  Flash flood warnings are currently in effect for Henry, Randolph, and Wayne counties. Storms are moving NW to SE.

Rare Twin Tornadoes Form in Nebraska

Rare "twin" tornadoes less than a mile from each other on the ground in Nebraska.
Photo provided by www.nbcnews.com.

This radar image provided by www.wunderground.com
shows the "twin" tornadoes in velocity mode.

A good amount of severe weather has been occurring this week, as it seems that conditions are becoming more favorable for the summer time storms to spawn. Yesterday's severe weather provided a very interesting sight for meteorologists and weather enthusiasts alike. This is the picture that many residents of Nebraska was forced to see yesterday.  Every news station in the United States has been talking about these rare "twin" tornadoes that touched down from one isolated supercell that formed. While this is an absolutely stunning portrait of what mother nature is capable of, it is a very sobering one at that. A particularly dangerous situation warning was issued for the storm that spawned these tornadoes and one of those tornadoes demolished the small town of Pilger and claimed 2 lives. Everyone affected by yesterday's storms are in our thoughts here at StormTrackerWx.com.

Moderate Risk for Severe Storms Today

An active weather day is in store for most of Plains states today.  Parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa are in a Moderate Risk area for severe thunderstorms. Focusing on the moderate risk area, low-level moisture is continuing to spread northward into the central plains on the backside of the retreating surface ridge. A south/southwesterly low-level jet stream will persist across the southern and central plains allowing for moisture to continue northwestward into Nebraska and western Iowa. Surface dew points in the upper 60s are likely and when coupled with strong surface heating should support the development of some very strong instability in the atmosphere over these areas today and into this evening. CAPE values are expected to be near 3000 J/Kg over central/eastern Kansas and into much of southern and eastern Nebraska by later today.

Warm sector thunderstorm development should be delayed until late in the day due to subsidence in wake of the lead impulse and an environmental mixed layer cap. The onset of height falls and with the main upper trough and uplift near the surface low that will position itself over western Kansas by this evening will help support strong storm development later on in the day over central/eastern Nebraska and possibly northwestern Kansas. Expect to see damaging winds, very large hail, and isolated tornadoes across much of these areas today and this evening.

Storm Outlook 6/11/14

Today's weather pattern brings with it two separate slight risk areas to discuss. The first is a slight risk area will bring severe thunderstorms to parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states, while the second slight risk area will likely bring severe storms over portions of the plains states.

In the Upper Ohio valley and Mid-Atlantic regions, thunderstorm development is not expected to be particularly focused today. An upper level low that is over the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee valley regions is forecasted to make it's way eastward today. This will result in weak mid-level pressure falls and large scale lift over the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. Initial storm development will most likely occur over the mountains of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania and spread northeastward. This will bring the storms into an area of sufficient vertical shear promoting the development of supercell storms. The main threats associated with these storms will be damaging winds and hail, but considering that the conditions will be right for some possible supercell development, the threat of a tornado or two developing should not be ruled out.

Kansas and Oklahoma should see some storm development today as well. Strong afternoon instability over central/western Kansas is expected to result due to cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected to start occurring by 12z in these areas. Minnesota will also see some rotating storms capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. This is owed mostly to a cold front that is making its way into central Minnesota. Southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the low creating a favorable shear environment for these storms to form.