Who Will Wake Up to a White Christmas This Year?

It's Christmas Eve and we are all wondering who will wake up to a white Christmas this year. It has been uncertain over the last few days what the weather patterns here in the US would bring to us for Christmas Day. Here in the northeast, we experienced a very soggy Christmas Eve. The rain lasted all day and was heavy at times, putting a slight damper on some last minute Christmas shopping plans. Despite all the rain, there were still a lot of shoppers out checking those final items off their Christmas shopping lists. Now that we are well into Christmas Eve and Christmas is only a few hours away a more accurate forecast can be made.

A Christmas Eve storm brought snow to the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies today, and it will bring a white Christmas to some. This newest winter storm has been named Eris and tomorrow it will bring snow to Utah, Wyoming, southeast Idaho and western Colorado. Residents in these mid-western states will have a white Christmas this year, but along with a white Christmas comes tricky travel conditions. If you are traveling on the following interstates on Christmas Day, please take your time and be safe:

Interstate 15: Butte, Montana into Utah

Interstate 25: Southern Montana into Wyoming

Interstate 70: Colorado high country into Utah

Interstate 80: Nebraska panhandle into Utah

Have you heard that Hawaii can get blizzards on Christmas Eve too? This Christmas Eve brought blizzard like conditions to Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. The last time a blizzard warning was issued for Hawaii was in 2007, making this only the second blizzard warning issued for Hawaii since 1986. Even though these conditions didn't affect populated areas of the Big Island, it is pretty interesting to hear that some unexpected areas can have a white Christmas too!

From our family here at StormTrackerWx to yours, Happy Holidays and have a happy and safe New Year!

Post Nuri: U.S. Braces for Arctic Invasion in Wake of Record-Breaking Storm

As of this morning Ex-Typhoon Nuri, located in the Bearing Sea, bombed-out to 924 mb. This makes it the strongest extratropical cyclone in the Pacific Ocean, breaking the previous record of 925mb that occurred between October 25-26 of 1977.

For those of you following this story, you hear a lot of Meteorologists using the term "bombing-out", but what does this term mean?  Simply put, "bombing-out" refers to a Low that drops 24mb or more in pressure over a 24 hour period.

It's not often we hear about how storms in the Pacific Ocean affect our weather 4,500 miles away.  However, a storm of this magnitude and strength will ultimately lead to a cold snap that will affect 42 or more states across the contiguous U.S. by week's end.

Extratropical storm Nuri, The lines are streamlines that represent
 how fast the winds around the storm are moving. The more
streamlines in any given area, the faster the wind.
Photo Courtesy of :Earth wind map

After battering Alaska with hurricane-force winds, 50-foot swells, and coastal erosion, Nuri will interfere with the jet stream (the level of high winds between 250mb and 300mb, or 9000m above mean sea level). The jet stream helps push air masses associated with High and Low pressure around the globe, which greatly affect everyday weather patterns.

Nuri is expected to cause a very large ridge of High pressure across the Eastern Pacific, parts of Central/ Eastern Canada, and the United States. As this ridge amplifies, a trough of Low pressure will deepen across the Central and Eastern U.S. This is what Meteorologists refer to as a teleconnection, or climate anomalies that are related across large distances. In this case, the trough associated with Nuri will bring arctic air from Canada into the U.S. by mid-week. 

As a result, heavy snow and strong winds will be felt in South Dakota, Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper-Peninsula, where Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.  Elsewhere, very cold temperatures will follow in the wake of a cold front, with highs struggling to warm above 32 degrees forecasted across parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Eastern Seaboard through the weekend

PSUDROPS Community Outreach Program Successful!

This past Saturday I volunteered my time to do some outreach in the State College community. This consisted of helping to educate the public on weather radar and instruments such, like the DOW (Doppler on Wheels) and the tornado pod. Instruments like this need to be talked about more. Without these we would not be able to see how severe storms develop, work, and how they move. They are extremely important to the Meteorology community. These are the instruments that gather weather data that help save lives!

The operator's Chair.

Dr. Richardson (Mesoscale Meteorology Professor)
in the Coordinator's Chair.

Myself and the Tornado Pod.

From 10am-3pm, I explained to members of the community the importance of such instruments in the Meteorological community. It was very exciting to see many parents encouraging their young children to learn more about the science behind weather. The day was very busy and we had 150-200 people come through, visit the DOW, and learn about the tornado pod. To see the excitement on the faces of the children who stopped by was truly inspiring.

Dr. Kumjian being interview by Jill (Meteo student)
 for a quick feature that she is working on for the Meteo dept.

I have one especially memorable moment from the event that I would like to share. I met this little boy who couldn't be more than 5 or 6 years old. His mother approached me and told me that he was afraid of thunderstorms and always looked at radar as storms were approaching to make sure that he was safe. This reminds me of my younger self; I was the exact same way. This is the exact way I became interested in the weather and then went on to pursue a Meterology degree at Penn State. To share this personal experience with this child was such a feel good experience. I was able to explain to him how thunderstorms worked and told him how interesting and cool they really were. I felt so satisfied having this experience and being able to relate on a personal level. Maybe one day in the child's future he will remember the conversation we had and he will go on to do great things in the Meteorology community!

All-in-all the day was very successful and I felt that the Meteorology department here at Penn State received a lot positive publicity. It was a lot of fun to be able to teach young and old about the cool things we do here in the department, and about how cool this science really is. I was interviewed quickly by a classmate on how I felt about the DOW visit and that was exciting as well! This has been a fantastic week so far!

Members of the community gathering around the tornado pod
learning about it uses.

Meteorology students (including myself) posing with the tornado pod.

First Deployment in the DOW

A quick update on the DOW visit! Today was my our day to deploy (Helen, Emily, Johan, and I) and we couldn't have better timing for our deployment. Our shift was from 5-7pm, we left around 430pm and made it to the site at 445pm. After the group before us finished up their scans, we took a few pictures with the DOW and jumped in to begin our adventure. Shortly after getting in the DOW, discussing our strategies and getting used to the controls, the front started to approach us.

When you first climb up the door to get into the DOW in can be very overwhelming. There are 2 main sets of computers, one is for the operator and the other is for the coordinator. Each person has their own set of duties while running radar sweeps. The operator is obviously the commander-in-chief. They are the person to run the scans. This includes switching pulses (which has to be done in a very specific order), choosing elevation angles to tell the radar to sweep over, changing the azimuth angles of the radar, controlling the speed at which the radar turns, controlling the highest and lowest elevation angles the radar will sweep at, and the list goes on and on. One can just imagine what this person's job would consist of. It is very overwhelming at times, especially when this is the first time you've done something like this. There are so many controls and buttons to play with! The coordinator can basically help with most of the above and are responsible for note-taking, which is super important so one can remember all the different things they did for their different scanning strategies. Things get a bit crazy inside the DOW, especially when you have a bunch of overzealous Meteorology students who are super excited about this project. For all of us this is the first time we've gotten hands on experience with radar, and for it to be the DOW, thats pretty big!

Me acting as the Operator of the DOW,
 running live radar sweeps.

The front moved through the area shortly after we started our shift. We started scanning only with PPIs, which are what you are used to seeing on a normal radar image. We did this because the front was still pretty far away, and there wasn't much to see in vertical cross-sections. As the storm moved closer we decided to add RHIs to our list of scans. After a little bit of editing and playing with the elevations angles and such, we finally were getting some interesting data. We saw Kelvin-Helmholtz instability/waves in the upper levels of the front. The bright band/ melting layer also made an appearance. This is the layer in the atmosphere in which the snow/ice begins melting and becomes coated in liquid water. At this layer, we see a jump in reflectivity, as water scatters the beam given off by the radar more than ice does.

Reflectivity and Velocity Image.

RHI scan showing vertical cross-section
of the front.

All in all we had such a fantastic experience on our first official DOW deployment and I was lucky to be paired with a group of enthusiastic people.  Dr. Kumjian stopped by to spend some time with us, and so did the new Meteorology department head, David Stensrud, and his wife. There is so much to take away from this experience and we here at Penn State are so lucky to have the opportunity to have hands on experience with the DOW for the next week. I am hoping to get out again sometime to scan maybe migrating birds, insects, or something else that can give us a cool signature. Even a wind farm would be fun, so we can see the velocity images and such. I want to leave you with a few more pictures from tonight of radar images and group photos! This photo above is with our deployment group, the Meteorology 434 (radar meteorology) professor and the DOW driver/operator, Traeger.

Picture of me standing in front of the DOW!!! Finally :)

                 

Example of the melting layer/bright band displayed in the vertical cross-section image of the storm.

The DOW 7.

DOW Visits PSU as Part of the PSUDROPS Program

Banner for the PSUDROPS program. Courtesy of PSUDROPS facebook event page.

This week at Penn State we are blessed to be visited by the DOW (Doppler on Wheels) as a part of the PSUDROPS (Penn State University Dual-pol Radar for Outreach and Precipitation Studies) program. As a meteorology student, I am required to learn how to operate, collect, and interpret data from the DOW in my Mesoscale and Radar meteorology courses as part of the expected course work. (Hence, the precipitation studies part of the acronym.) I figured this would be the perfect opportunity to construct a few interesting blog posts on the DOW.

"Tornado pod"

So far, I do know that I ( and a few other fellow students) might get the opportunity to take the DOW out on Friday night to scan the passage of a front. This will be used in our field project for Meteo434 (radar meteorology course). I have also volunteered to talk about the "tornado pod" on Saturday as part of an community outreach program during the State College Fall Festival. This is super exciting, as I have never seen a deployment pod in person before. I will try to document as much as I can and post blogs updates as they become available.

To be presented with this once in a lifetime opportunity to work with the DOW and to become acquainted with the procedures needed to run the radar and collect/interpret data is exciting. I am even more excited to share my experiences with you as they become available!

If you are interested in reading more, here is the facebook event page.


Enjoy a few photos that I took today during my quick crash course in DOW operations.

Close-up of "tornado pod"

Tornado pod with DOW7 in the background.

Stormy Weather Possible for the Northeast

Surface analysis courtesy of Intellicast.

A cold front that is situated over Southern Quebec through Central New York/Pennsylvania and into the lower Ohio Valley will help to set up favorable conditions for some severe storms in the New England States, Northeastern Pennsylvania, and the Central Appalachians this afternoon. An elongated trough of lower pressure sits over this entire area, currently, which will help decrease heights as the day progresses.

Even though mid-level lapse rates should remain weak, a few other factors will play an important role in setting the stage for storm development in the slight risk area today. A combination of an air mass rich in moisture and moderate daytime surface heating should help CAPE values increase to about 1000 J/Kg in central Maine to larger values of about 2000 J/Kg in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Development of storms will be seen initially along the outflow boundary from overnight storms and the lee trough in the central/northeast Pennsylvania and southern New York areas. Expect storm development later this afternoon along and ahead of the cold front boundary as it makes its way through the projected slight risk area. Storms should be expected to develop in the Mid-Hudson Valley and eastward into central/eastern New England.

Storms should develop into lines/clusters with the primary threat being locally damaging wind from embedded bowing segments. A few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out due to the strength of the 700 mb flow (40-50 kts) and the moisture rich lower levels of the atmosphere. Storms should merge into a squall line and diminish later tonight.

Overview of the projected slight risk area for 9/6/2014 courtesy of Storm Prediction Center.

Slight Risk for Central Plains, Mid-Atlantic Region

Severe weather is expected in parts of the Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley and parts of the Northeast today as we progress into the late afternoon and evening hours.


Afternoon storms in the Central Plains should be minimal, but not ruled out, with the main threat for storms starting along a cold front later in the day. Dew points reaching the mid-upper 60s by late afternoon, deep vertical shear, steep lapse rates, high cape values, westerly flow aloft, and a moist southerly flow bringing in tropical moisture from the gulf, creates the perfect environment for severe storm development. Isolated supercells should begin the storm development along the cold front that will be making its way through the area later today. Later in the evening storms should start to grow and develop into bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Expect to see a few isolated tornados and some very heavy rain with these storms as well.


In the Mid-Atlantic region, strong heating is occuring from Northern Virginia to the New York city area. High precipitable water values and 30-40 knot westerly mid-level winds will help contribute to some storm development this afternoon and early evening. A few of these storms can become severe. Formation of supercell and bowing structures are possible. If you live in these areas keep an eye out for damaging winds.

3rd Named Tropical Depression Develops in the Atlantic

Tropical storm Cristobal over southeast Bahamas.
Photo provided by NASA.

A new tropical storm has caught the attention of Meteorologists over the last few days. Tropical storm Cristobal, which is the third tropical storm in the Atlantic, is sitting about 100 miles east off the coast of the central Bahamas. Cristobal is dumping some pretty heavy rain over the central and southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands and is moving slowly. Once it meets with the jet stream and a high pressure system that is sitting in the Central Atlantic ocean, the tropical storm will pick up the pace. The storm is projected to reach hurricane strength by early Wednesday morning, where it will then be a category 1.

Currently Cristobal poses no significant weather threat to the U.S. as models show it will move northeast into the Atlantic Ocean. The eastern seaboard will see some impacts due to the strong winds circulating around the storm since it will be just close enough for the winds to reach the coast. These stronger winds will affect parts of the Mid-Atlantic seaboard to Florida's beaches up until Wednesday. When there are strong winds in and around the coast, high surfs follow and will most likely cause some very minor coastal flooding. The areas that should be most concerned with this threat include the northeast Florida coast, northern Outer Banks of North Carolina, southeast Virginia and possibly the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Strong rip currents from Florida and as far north as the Jersey Shore are another concern that will be monitored as Cristobal moves northeast.

Path of Cristobal up until Thursday.
Photo provided by Weather Underground.

A "1 In 100 Year" Event: The Meteorology Behind East Indiana's Historic Flooding

On August 21, 2014 several meteorological variables came together across East Central Indiana leading to flash flooding of historic proportions, which many are calling a "1 in 100 year" event.

That morning, a slow-moving frontal boundary began lifting north out of the Ohio Valley, with dewpoints soring into the low 70s behind the front.  At the same time, an advancing ridge of high pressure began to build east across the Midwest from the Central Plains.  The ridge also aided in baroclinic lift, with showers and thunderstorms training along the periphery of the surface high.

Showers and heavy thunderstorms began impacting the region shortly after daybreak, as the first of a series of mid-level impulses rounded the ridge axis.  These impulses - referred to as vort max's by Meteorologists, promote enhanced lift downstream of the direction wind is coming from.  As air enters one of these impulses, it is accelerated by ageostrophic components.

By Noon, the front had lifted far enough north and east for ongoing convection to spread across Central Ohio.  Breaks in cloud cover aided in daytime heating and atmospheric instability across East Central Indiana.  By the mid-afternoon hours, most of the area lied within the warm sector, with surface dewpoints well in the 70s.

The front then began to slowly drift south, as another series of mid-level impulses moved southeast from Wisconsin.  By dark, the front had become nearly stationary, with showers and severe thunderstorms impacting Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana.
 

12-hour NEXRAD loop from August 22, shows showers and heavy thunderstorms training along a stationary front across Central Indiana (image courtesy of NEXLAB - College of Dupage and UCAR).

By Midnight, a slow-moving MCC - or Mesoscale Convective Complex, had formed across North Central Indiana.  As this complex moved southeast, additional showers and thunderstorms exploded along the stalled front, ahead of a very moist and unstable air mass.

With little steering winds aloft, storm movement was very slow.  Heavy rain - in upwards of an inch an hour, inundated portions of East Central Indiana.  Particulary hardest hit was Hartford City in Blackford County, which lied directly in the path of an elongated vort max.  By daybreak, as much as 11 inches of rain had fallen within a 12-hour window.

48-hour precipitation totals show a corridor of dark red, indicating as much as 10 inches or more of rain fell along a Marion to Muncie line, much of which occurred within a 12-hour window (image courtesy of the National Weather Service).

Climatologically, the atmospheric variables that came together on August 22, 2014 to produce historic flash flooding across East Central Indiana were a 1 in 50-100 year event.




Related Articles: Northern Indiana Gets Inundated with Intense Rainfall

Northern Indiana Gets Inundated with Intense Rainfall

Many residents of Northern Indiana awoke to a very wet surprise Friday morning. With rainfall totals of 5-10" and isolated 12" amounts, according to RadarScope, many areas saw some pretty intense flash flooding.  Some weather stations in Northwest Indiana gave rainfall totals of 4-6". But the area between Fort Wayne and Muncie was the hardest hit seeing the largest rainfall totals of 11" or more, according to the National Weather Service.

Some schools such as the those in Blackford County school district cancelled classes for the day and Interstate 69 was also closed for a good portion of Friday morning due to flood waters. Trees and power lines were down in Madison county and some roads were impassible to cars, stated Madison county Emergency Management officials. I think it goes without saying that residential homes were also affected by the flash flooding Thursday and Friday morning.

The torrential rainfall was caused by "An upper level disturbance moving along a stalled frontal boundary" stated weather.com's meteorologist Linda Lam. With dew points in the 70s and plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, the environment was perfect for very heavy rainfall to occur in the Northern Indiana area Thursday night into Friday morning. There is still a chance for this area to see showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon.

Stormtrackerwx.com's own Meteorologist Jason Berry, who resides in this area, was able to supply a few first hand photos of the flooding that many Northern Indiana residents awoke to Friday morning. The photos below were taken in Rural Jay County, just outside of Dunkirk, IN.

UPDATE: New Slight Risk Area Today for Southern Virginia and Eastern North Carolina

It seems a new slight risk area has been added to today's convective outlook. Southern Virginia and Eastern North Carolina have gained the attention of the SPC for today.

A well defined short-wave trough is moving eastward across the Appalachians. Looking downstream of this trough, there is a fairly moist environment with dew points in the 70s. Cloud breaks in the area will promote destabilization in the atmosphere as areas of strong diabatic heating will occur. This will help CAPE values reach 2000-2500 J/KG in the areas of strongest heating.

The large scale ascent in this area associated with this trough should result in widespread storm development this afternoon. A unidirectional westerly flow of 25-35 knts will help provided sufficient shear to support organized storm development. Steeping low-level lapse rates suggest potential for some stronger storms to develop and produce strong/damaging winds from mid-afternoon through evening hours in this area.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa are the Target for Today's Slight Risk Area

Today's slight risk area can be found in parts Southern Minnesota, Southwest Wisconsin, and much of Iowa. It's been a few days since there has been a slight risk area and the days where there have been, these area have been very small and isolated. Today's projected risk area is once again very small and isolated, not covering a large area, which is what we hope for being that some of these storms do a lot of damage to property and can harm people. So having a small risk area/ nothing to report on is good in a Meteorologists eyes.

Let's talk about the risk that could come along with today's storms in our projected area. There is a disturbance that will be moving across Minnesota today, that will help provide the necessary ingredients for storms to fire-up today. Along with this disturbance there will be a belt of enhanced wind midlevel flow (40-50 kts) in the area around the time of maximum diurnal destabilization. Weak to modest large scale ascent acting on a fairly moist and increasingly unstable air mass will supply cape values of 1500-2000 J/KG. This will in return contribute to severe storm development.

The other feature in this area that is going to help contribute to today's severe weather in the slight risk area is a broad area of surface low pressure that has situated itself over Central Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is an area of convergent prefrontal wind shifts, where storms should develop linearly extending southward from the lows center, in one or more bands across this boundary. An area of steep mid-level lapse rates will reside across the moist axis of this low (Western Iowa and into Southern Minnesota) where strong mid-level flow around 50 kts will supply more than enough shear for storm development and persistence. The evening hours is when there should be some noticeable severe storm development. Keep an eye out for bowing segments with wind damage potential and a few supercells capable of producing large hail the size of golf balls.

Another Quiet Day Across the U.S.

The last few days have been pretty quiet for severe weather across the U.S. It seems that the temperatures are starting to get much cooler now, at least here in Pennsylvania, and storm development is taking a hit because of that. Tomorrow seems as if there will be a little bit more to talk about, as there is a small slight risk area predicted over a portion of Missouri. Looking at today, once again, a good portion of the United States is simply in a see text area. Let's briefly touch on that and give a very quick summary, as there isn't much to talk about.

It seems that there will be a chance for maybe a few severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies for this afternoon and evening. The other threat is localized damaging winds over parts of the South-Central Great Plains and the Missouri Valley.

That's all I have for you today, folks! Keeping it short and sweet. As always like us on our Facebook page and follow us on Twitter for more updates and photos! Enjoy your day and as always, keep an eye to the sky!

Updates on Bertha, Iselle, and Julio

There are currently 3 storms to focus on right now, Bertha in the Atlantic, Julio in the Pacific, and Iselle which just made landfall in Hawaii yesterday. Bertha is currently located of the coast of New York, but poses no threat to us here in the United States. There is a chance that the remnants of the tropical depression will effect south of England on Sunday.

Tropical Depression Bertha 8/8/2014 off the coast of New York.

Early morning visible satellite image of Iselle over Hawaii, 8/8/2014.

Current rainfall totals in Hawaii from Tropical Storm Iselle.

Let's talk about the bigger news, which is Iselle. Iselle made landfall in Hawaii today around 2:30 am local time, about 5 miles east of Pahala with sustained wind speeds of 60 mph. Iselle is the first tropical storm to effect Hawaii in 22 years. The island is experiencing large rainfall totals of 5-8 inches and up to a foot in some localized areas. A flash flood warning is in effect.

 Iselle was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm Thursday night, with winds falling below the 74 mph mark to 60 mph. So far there have been no reported injuries on the island, just reports of downed trees and power outages. 

The islands are not completely out of the woods yet as Julio, a category 3 hurricane, makes its way toward Hawaii. Julio is following 900 miles behind Iselle and is expected to stay north of the islands Sunday morning.

Bertha Upgraded to a Hurricane

As of this morning, with a sustained wind speed of 80 mph, tropical depression Bertha was upgraded to a hurricane. Bertha currently sits about 560 miles west south west of Bermuda. The photo above shows her projected path. No threat to land is expected from Bertha as it should head out to sea and weaken by later in the week. If anything changes, you can always find updates here! Stay tuned!

Quiet Day Ahead for Much of the US; Severe Storms Still Possible in Slight Risk Area

Since much of yesterday's active weather has quieted down and there doesn't seems to be much going on in terms of active weather today, in exception to the slight risk area and the New England states, we're going to keep this post short and sweet.

The focus area for today is the projected slight risk that runs from the North Central Gulf Coast up through the Coastal Carolinas. In the slight risk area, expect a few strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds. There is a small chance that the South Carolina Coast could see an isolated tornado with some of these storms, but the chance is quite small.

The New England States could see some strong storms today as well. A few cloud breaks during the day will allow for some daytime heating helping to possibly bump up CAPE values in this area to 750-1500 J/KG, pair this with somewhat favorable vertical shear and organized severe storm development is possible, but marginal. Again there is a slight chance to see a few isolated tornadoes out of these storms, but the chance is quite slim, 2% according to the SPC outlook for today.

It seems that besides for a few isolated severe storms, most of the US will be quiet today, especially in comparison to yesterday's severe weather events. But as always if you live in the above mentioned areas, keep your eye to the sky as it is possible to see some active weather in your area.

5 Tornado Warned Cells in Tennessee and South Carolina

If you live in this area please keep a close eye on the weather! 

Moderate Risk Lowered to Slight; Slight Risk for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic Region, and Southern New England States

Yet another active weather day lies ahead for some parts of the country. Today, the focus is on much of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic states, and Southern New England.

Due to widespread clouds and precipitation in the Eastern Kentucky/ Western West Virginia area, the moderate risk for this area was removed. With this being said, there is still enhanced probabilities of tornadoes development, hail, and strong winds. 

A short summary is all that should be needed for today's outlook since the moderate risk area was lowered to a slight risk area. Severe thunderstorms are expected to move through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Coast region today and into the evening. The most significant severe weather threat will be across Eastern Kentucky, Southern Ohio, Southwestern West Virginia, and Southwestern Virginia, where they moderated risk area was lowered to slight risk. An isolated strong tornado is possible in these areas along with the usual damaging winds and large hail that accompanies severe storms. 

Illinois and Indiana in Moderate Risk Area

Today could be a big day weather-wise for parts of Indiana and Illinois. As of yesterday that area was still in a slight risk, but today it was bumped up to a moderate. Storms are expected to develop late afternoon/evening in this area. This is will happen before the mesoscale convective vortex that is in Northern Kansas this morning accelerates Eastward in response to the flow aloft strengthening. The convection associated with this will be in an environment that is favorable for supercells that can produce very large hail and damaging winds. Since there is sufficient low-level moisture and storm relative helicity, a couple tornadoes are to be expected to form within these supercells, as well. One or more bowing segments are expected to form across IL/IN tonight bringing some damaging winds with it. The storms will then move eastward through early Sunday toward Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky, with the risk of overnight damaging winds.

The slight risk area that surrounds the moderated risk, extends from Eastern Nebraska and into the Ohio/Kentucky area. Moisture, steep lapse rates, and daytime heating will allow for strong buoyancy and cape values of 3000-4000 J/KG, along with shear of 45-55 kts. Given strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear, it seems that any storms that form today in this area will become supercells with the risk for isolated areas of very large hail and damaging winds into the evening hours.

Stay tuned for updates as the day goes on!

Storm Outlook for 7/23/14

Most of the country has the chance to see some thunderstorm activity today (all areas in green and yellow shaded areas), but the main focus areas are Eastern Washington and Eastward into the Northern High Plains, the ARKLATEX region, and parts of the Northeast/New England states.

Keeping this short and sweet, let's just jump to a quick summary of what is expected to happen today in these mentioned areas. Severe storm development is likely in parts of Washington and Eastward into the northern Great Plains states this afternoon and this evening due to strengthening winds aloft and steep lapse rates. These storms will have the potential to produce large hail and isolated tornadoes mainly after dark.

In the ARKLATEX region dew-points in the mid-70s and strong heating will lead to extreme instability and high shear values in this region. As the day progresses into the afternoon/evening hours a bowing structure may form in this area bringing along with it, the usual risk for damaging winds. Before weakening after dark, the storms could potentially make their way into Texas.

Finally, we get to the New England/Northeast states which has already been seeing some pretty active weather during the last week/week-and-a-half. Cape values of 1500-2000 J/KG are possible due to strong heating and ample low-level moisture ahead of a cold front that is currently extending Eastern Quebec down into Lake Erie. Since winds aloft will not be particularly strong and lapse rates aren't exceptionally steep, it is unclear how many storms will fire and become severe, despite convection coverage in this area being pretty high.

Less Stormy Days Ahead for the Northeast, Texas in Slight Risk Area for Today

It looks like the severe/stormy weather that has been so persistent in the area of the Northeastern states over the last week or so has come to an end. This area is no longer in a risk category as the shortwave trough that is over the Northeastern States loses amplitude, and ejects northward into the New England states. As this trough loses it's amplitude heights are rising causing higher pressure to build into the area.

Along with high pressure, as most of us know, comes nicer weather, due to subsidence (sinking motion in the atmosphere). This sinking motion isn't friendly for developing storms because for those we need rising, vertical motion. Areas of high pressure lack that, therefore that's why we generally see very nice weather in these high pressure areas. Meaning that the Northeastern states should see some nicer weather after all those severe storms and tornado warned cells moved through the area all last week. The next day for potential storms in this area seems to be Sunday.

Here are a few radar images of some of the storms I have been seeing my area over the last week.

 Here are a few pictures of a shelf cloud from one of those storms. This cloud was actually associated with the last radar image. I was in meteorological bliss when snapping these photos. :)

Shelf cloud as it moved toward us.

Progression of the shelf cloud in 5 minutes time.

Let's move on to where the interesting weather might be positioned for today. Taking a peek at the SPC day 1 outlooks, it seems that central Texas is in the risk area for today. Despite being in the slight risk area, it looks like the severity of the storms won't be incredibly strong. Central Texas should see widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms in clusters, that will be possible through the evening hours. Strong wind gusts and large hail are the main threats with these storms, as the tornado risk is to conditional and depends on storm scales processes, making it difficult to predict.

Short and sweet, but to right to the point folks. There isn't much more to report on. It looks like it's going to be a pretty quiet day, with the exception of the slight risk area in Texas and maybe a few other pop up storms in the green areas on the outlook map above.